Syria under Israeli control Implications for sovereignty and regional balance
Syria under Israeli control: Implications for sovereignty and regional balance
MADRID - Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad on December 8, Israeli forces have intensified their offensive in Syria.
The power vacuum left by the collapse of the Syrian government has triggered a series of strategic maneuvers in the region, with the entry of Israeli troops into key areas standing out.
The Israeli military crossed the demilitarized zone established in 1974, which separates the territories controlled by Syria from those occupied by Israel in the Golan Heights. In this context, Israeli forces have taken up new positions both in the Golan Heights and in the strategically important Mount Al-Sheikh, thus consolidating their presence in Syria.
Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz announced that Israeli forces will remain at Mount Al-Sheikh throughout the winter. According to IRNA, citing Al Jazeera, Katz emphasized that he has ordered the military to be prepared to maintain its position in this key area during the winter season.
"Control of Al-Sheikh, given the current situation in Syria, is of great strategic importance in terms of security," said Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz. The mountain, also known as Mount Hermon, provides Israel with a privileged position overlooking southern Syria, strengthening its surveillance and control capabilities in a region marked by historical tensions and recent conflicts.
In recent hours, Israeli forces have intensified their offensive in Syria, occupying nine localities in the Golan Heights. According to local sources, Israeli troops have forced residents of these areas to abandon their homes and move further into the country, contributing to the growing exodus of civilians amidst the conflict.
The military advance, supported by armored units, has penetrated up to 18 kilometers into Syrian territory, reaching positions near the international highway connecting Damascus with Beirut. This movement places Israeli forces just 23 kilometers from the Syrian capital.
The Israeli military has reported that its air and naval forces have carried out more than 350 strikes targeting military installations in Damascus and Latakia. According to Israeli authorities, these attacks have resulted in the destruction of between 70% and 80% of Syria's strategic military assets in both cities.
Among the destroyed assets are fighter jets, radar systems, air defense systems, warships, and ammunition depots, according to the Israeli military.
The Israeli regime has stated that the objective of its offensive in Syria is to prevent weapons previously held by the Syrian army from "falling into the hands of Syrian extremist factions or Hezbollah."
For several days, the leaders of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, an Al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria and backed by Turkey, refrained from condemning the Israeli invasion of their country or the subsequent loss of sovereignty this implies for Syria. This silence, amid the recent military developments in the region, has sparked speculation about the group's stance, as it is one of the most influential in post-Assad Syria.
Just a few days ago, Obeida Arnaout, spokesperson for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), refused to respond to the interviewer's questions about the more than 300 Israeli strikes on Syria, during an interview with the British Channel 4. The same spokesperson had previously met with a group of pro-Israeli experts just days before his interview with Channel 4.
Finally, on Saturday, December 14, the HTS leader, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, spoke out about Israel's invasion of Syria, calling it an "unjustified escalation." Julani warned that Syria "cannot be dragged into conflicts that will only bring more destruction." He also called on the international community to intervene and "assume its responsibilities" regarding the ongoing events.
Despite these statements, the relationship between HTS and Israel remains a subject of speculation. In this context, Foreign Policy magazine reported that Israel had secretly provided arms and financial assistance to at least 12 Syrian rebel groups. In addition to Israel’s support for armed Syrian groups against Bashar al-Assad, a statement made by Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister at the time, further highlights Israel’s role in the developments in Syria. Olmert stated, "If Assad had made peace with Israel in 2008, Syrians would not have suffered a civil war, as it would have opened the doors of Washington and Europe for Assad, which would have prevented the civil war."
According to several Iranian experts, such as Jamileh Kadivar, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is currently defined as a Salafist organization with a flexible internal orientation, capable of adapting to changes. Over the years, the group has employed Salafist principles to govern the province of Idlib, which is under its control and known as the "Salvation Government of Syria." Since 2016, the organization has repeatedly mentioned the concept of a "Sunni zone" and the creation of a Sunni entity, which highlights a clearly sectarian and anti-Shiite political-theological vision.
Bassem Sayyoni, one of the founders of the Salvation Government in Idlib, explained that "when al-Julani needed fatwas of takfir (excommunication), he turned to those who could declare groups as takfiris under the pretext of collaborating with foreigners. When interests change, the strategy also changes, moving toward one that requires openness." According to Sayyoni, it is possible that al-Julani will again resort to takfir against specific individuals or groups, especially Shiites, if the interests demand it.
In this context, al-Julani also described Israel's war in Gaza and Lebanon as a war of Iran and the region, a comment that some Iranian analysts interpret as a clear manifestation of his anti-Islamic Republic stance.
Iran views the developments in Syria as part of Israel's plan to redraw the region according to its own political interests. In this regard, several Iranian experts have begun to propose potential alternatives to counter these plans. First, the likelihood of Iran crossing the nuclear threshold is high. Second, Iranian political leaders believe that Israel's plan for a "New Middle East" poses a threat not only to the Islamic Republic but also to Saudi Arabia. In addition, Turkey's growing role in the new regional equation adds another layer of complexity. Therefore, Iran's strategy is focused on building a temporary alliance with both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in order to counter the Ankara-Tel Aviv axis.
source: tehrantimes.com