Normal less than normal rainfall forecast for first half of winter
Normal, less than normal rainfall forecast for first half of winter
TEHRAN –Average rainfall is forecasted to be normal and, in some areas, less than normal for December 21-February 2, according to Metrological Organization.
In the first week of the first month of the winter (from December 23-29), the precipitation in the east, northeast, and some areas in the central and southern part of the country is less than normal, while in other areas it will be normal, ISNA reported.
Rainfall is expected to be above-normal in some parts of the middle Zagros. During the same period, the average temperature in the southeast of the country is 1 °C lower than normal. In the north-western part, it will be 3 to 5 °C, and in other parts 1 to 3 °C above normal.
In the second week (December 30–January 5), the amount of rainfall is above-normal in the western half of the coast of the Caspian Sea and central Zagros, less than normal in the southeast and some areas in south of the country, and normal in most other parts of the country.
The coastal zones of the Caspian Sea are forecasted to receive more than 30 mm of accumulated rainfall at the probability of 50-75 percent.
The air temperature in the south and southeast of the country is said to be 1-2 °C above-normal and normal in other regions.
Precipitation in the third week (January 6-12) is expected to be normal in the southwest and south of the country, and less than normal in other parts. The temperature will be 1 °C and 1-2 °C above-normal in the southern half and other regions, respectively.
In the 4th week (January 12-19), precipitations tend to be normal in the northwest, Caspian coast, and parts of the southern half of the country; above-normal in a few areas in the south of the country as well as South Zagros.
In the first two weeks of the second month of winter, from January 20 to February 2, rainfall is forecasted to be normal in northern provinces, and some areas in the south and west, and less than normal in other regions with the temperature getting 1-3 °C above normal.
From the beginning of the current water year (September 22) till December 15, the average rainfall in the country was recorded to be about 33 mm, indicating a 36 percent decrease compared to the long-term average which is 53 mm, ISNA quoted Ahad Vazifieh, an official with Metrological Organization, as saying.
In the current water year, all provinces had received low rainfall, except North Khorasan and Mazandaran where precipitations were normal or slightly above normal.
The recorded rainfall in Mazandaran province has amounted to 266 mm compared to the average recorded rainfall of 209 mm. The province has received 57 mm more rain.
Over 250mm rain in previous water year
The previous water year (September 22, 2023 – September 22, 2024) came to an end with receiving 252.7 mm of precipitation, showing a 19 percent increase compared to the year before.
The low precipitations at the beginning of the previous water year were worrisome, but the volume of precipitations improved with the passage of time.
Due to successive years of drought, the increase in rainfall amounts did not compensate water deficit in the country, some provinces are suffering from water shortage, IRNA reported.
A total of 10 provinces received less than normal rainfall.
According to the latest reports, the total amount of recorded rainfall in the previous water year (ended on September 23) amounted to 252.7 mm, which signifies a 19 percent increase compared to 212.9 mm rain received in the water year before (September 2022 –September 2023).
Compared to the long-term figure, 248.7 mm, it shows a two percent increase.
MT/MG
source: tehrantimes.com