Normal lowerthannormal rainfall projected for next six weeks

Normal, lower-than-normal rainfall projected for next six weeks

TEHRAN – According to Metrological Organization, average precipitation is forecast to be normal and less than normal in the next six weeks, from January 6 to February 18.

In the first week, January 6 to 12, rainfall is less than normal in Gilan, and Ardabil provinces, and in some areas of the middle and northern Zagros. There is a low chance of rain or no rain in other regions of the country.

The average air temperature is predicted to be normal in the east, and southeast. It will reach 3°C less than normal in some central parts of the country, and 1-5 °C above normal in other areas. 

The highest temperature (3–5 °C) will be recorded in the northwest, the middle and northern Zagros, and the southern slopes of the Alborz and the north-eastern strip.

In the second week, the northern half of the country is predicted to receive more rainfall; the precipitations in Zagros, Alborz, north-west and north-east will be within the normal range, but it will be less than normal in the south and south-east.

Accumulated rainfall is predicted to amount to 50 to 100 mm in some parts of the middle Zagros and the western part of the country.

The air temperature, during the second week, will be 1 to 5°C above normal with the highest increase (3-5 °C) to occur in the northern half of the country. 

During the third week, the rainfall in the center and northern half of the country is expected to be normal, while in the southern half, it tends to be less than normal. The air temperature is projected to be 1 to 3 °C above normal.

The amount of rainfall in the fourth week will tend to be above normal in the Caspian coast and Ardabil province, less than normal in the center, southwest, and southern parts, and normal in other regions. The air temperature will get 1 to 3 °C above normal in provinces located in southern parts of the country, and normal in other areas.

In the fifth week, precipitations will be less than normal in the provinces located in the west, and southwest, less than normal in the south and east, and normal in other areas. 

Rainfall, in the sixth week, is forecast to be less than normal in the southwest, south, and southeast of the country, above normal in the Caspian coast, and normal in other areas.

The temperature in the fifth and sixth weeks will be normal in most regions; it will get 1-2 °C above normal in the south, southeast, and southwest.

Since the beginning of the current water year (September 23, 2024), precipitations have dropped by 42 percent compared to the long-term average, according to Metrological Organization.

The accumulated rainfall in the current water year has amounted to 38.4 mm which indicates a 42-percent decrease in comparison to the long-term average rainfall of 66.4 mm, ISNA reported.

The average precipitations from December 24 to 30 totaled 4.2 mm, showing about a 17.3 percent decrease compared to 5 mm in the long term. 

From the beginning of the winter, average rainfall equaled 4.5 mm. Compared to the 7.3 mm rainfall recorded in the long term, it has dropped by 38.8 percent.

Apart from Mazandaran and Kordestan provinces, the amount of precipitation in other provinces has been less than normal. 

Hormozgan province recording 6.3 mm of rainfall has experienced an 85.6 percent decline in precipitations, compared to 42.2 mm recorded in average long-term.

Rainfall in Tehran has also lowered. From September 23 to December 30, 2024, the average precipitation came to 53.8 mm, decreasing by 32.4 mm compared to 79.5 mm rain recorded in the long.

MT/MG 

source: tehrantimes.com