Geopolitics of Hormuz The energy artery of the world

Geopolitics of Hormuz: The energy artery of the world

SOUTH LEBANON—As the United States and Israel wage a wide campaign aimed at toppling Iran’s political order, Tehran has signalled that the battlefield will not remain confined.

Among the most consequential steps under consideration is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—arguably the most strategic maritime chokepoint in the world.

The Strait of Hormuz occupies a uniquely sensitive location. It is a narrow waterway separating Iran from the Arabian Peninsula and linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

At its widest, it spans roughly 50 kilometers, yet the actual navigational lanes at its narrowest point are only about three kilometers wide in each direction.

Its depth, averaging around 60 meters, allows for the passage of the world’s largest oil tankers. This combination of narrow transit corridors and deep-water capacity makes it both indispensable and vulnerable.

This matter so profoundly because nearly 20 to 25 percent of global oil exports—approximately 20 million barrels per day—flow through this corridor.

Around a third of the world’s seaborne crude shipments and roughly 35 percent of liquefied natural gas exports also transit these waters.

According to international energy estimates, about 80 percent of the oil passing through the strait is destined for Asian economies such as China, Japan, India, and South Korea. No rapid maritime alternative exists that could compensate for such volumes in the short term.
A sustained closure would therefore trigger immediate and far-reaching consequences.

Oil prices, which hovered near $70 per barrel before hostilities, could surge beyond $100 or even $120. Since energy is embedded in nearly every sector—manufacturing, transportation, agriculture, and services—such an increase would amplify inflation worldwide.

Shipping insurance premiums and freight rates have already risen in response to heightened risk, signaling how sensitive markets are to any disruption in Hormuz.

Iran’s leverage does not stem solely from geography but also from asymmetric capabilities. Even making the strait temporarily unsafe for navigation—through the threat of naval mines—could paralyze commercial traffic.

Naval mines are relatively inexpensive to deploy yet extraordinarily costly and time-consuming to remove. Clearing a mined waterway requires specialized vessels, aircraft, and weeks of coordinated operations under constant risk.

Modern history shows that mining campaigns have, at times, been more strategically decisive than sustained bombardment; the economic ripple effects would extend beyond oil-importing nations.

Major producers in the Persian Gulf rely heavily on Hormuz to access global markets. A prolonged interruption could sever their connection to Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America, disrupting supply chains and undermining fiscal stability.

Roughly 11 percent of global trade—excluding oil—also moves through this maritime artery.

Container vessels would be forced to reroute around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, increasing transit times, fuel costs, and consumer prices.
In essence, the Strait of Hormuz is not merely a shipping lane; it is a central artery of the global economy. It closure would transform a regional war into a global economic crisis. In that reality lies Tehran’s most formidable strategic card.

source: tehrantimes.com