How Iranians would respond to a US ground invasionparticularly on its islands

How Iranians would respond to a US ground invasion—particularly on its islands

TEHRAN - When U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, ordered the assassination of Iran’s Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, on February 28, initial reports in Hebrew media suggested the American-Israeli strikes would continue for up to 72 hours. The assumption was that with the martyrdom of Iran’s Leader and many of its top commanders, the country’s system would collapse within days, leaving the two regimes with no need for post-war planning.

But after nearly a month of conflict, the Islamic Republic has shown no signs of collapse. It has replaced its assassinated officials and launched coordinated military operations against the U.S. and Israel—striking all American bases in the region, pounding Israel, and restricting navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

For the Trump administration, the costs now outweigh any benefits the president may have hoped to gain from the chaos. At least 17 U.S. bases in the region lie in ruins, American soldiers have been killed, trillions have been lost in stock markets, and with rising gas and diesel prices at home, Trump’s political future is also in jeopardy. Under these circumstances, the famously narcissistic president is less likely to make the logical decision to withdraw and more likely to take steps that will sink the U.S. further into trouble. And it appears such decisions have already been made.

In an effort to force Iran to allow all ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz—a freedom of navigation that existed before the war—the United States appears to be deploying significant ground forces to West Asia in preparation for a possible invasion of Iran. The buildup centers around two Marine Expeditionary Units. The first, the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, with roughly 2,500 Marines aboard the USS Tripoli, departed Japan in mid-March and is expected to arrive by late March 2026. The second, the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, with another 2,500 Marines aboard the USS Boxer, left San Diego in mid-March and is projected to reach the region by mid-to-late April 2026. In addition to these amphibious forces, the command element of the 82nd Airborne Division and an infantry brigade of roughly 2,000 troops are also being deployed, with Pentagon officials reportedly discussing the potential authorization of up to 10,000 additional combat troops as early as next week. According to Pentagon planning, these forces are being assembled for several discrete “final blow” scenarios.

When it comes to a U.S. ground invasion into Iran, some of the likely options include attempts to seize or blockade Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports; invade Larak Island, a strategic outpost Iran uses to control the Strait of Hormuz; or capture the Persian Gulf islands of Bu Musa and the Tunbs at the western entrance of the strait.

But even these limited ground invasions are unlikely to bear fruit. They are expected not only to drive energy prices even higher but also to inflict heavy American casualties—something Washington has so far tried to conceal.

Every large vessel the U.S. has sent to the Persian Gulf has been forced to flee the region due to incoming Iranian missiles and drones. But even if the U.S. somehow manages to evade these attacks and successfully land forces on Iranian islands like Kharg, Bu Musa, or Larak, there remains a fundamental problem with holding them, even for a short period.

All these islands lie close to the Iranian coast, placing any American force that seizes them squarely within range of Iranian rockets, artillery, and loitering munitions that can be launched from the mainland without warning. Attempting to hold the islands would expose U.S. forces to constant missile and drone attacks, including small first-person-view drones capable of identifying and striking individual soldiers in real time.

Furthermore, Iran has already fortified these islands with extensive underground facilities housing combat troops and military equipment, meaning it may not even need to rely on the mainland to engage American forces.

“The U.S. cannot continue this war indefinitely, the way it did in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, because the economic toll of war with Iran would be catastrophic. It has already caused problems around the world,” said Vahid Khazab, a historian and war researcher, on IRIB. “Trump is a gambler. He knows he has to stop this war within a limited time, so he wants to play all his cards before that day comes.”

source: tehrantimes.com